Wealth Podcast Post

Making Peaceful Profits with Roger Khoury

George Grombacher July 28, 2022

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Making Peaceful Profits with Roger Khoury

LifeBlood: We talked about how to make peaceful profits in the stock market, why paying attention to demand is a better approach than price, the danger of emotions and trading, and how to get started, with Roger Khoury, Founder and CEO of Market Forecast Academy. 

Listen to learn what surfers can teach you about successful stock trading!

You can learn more about Roger at MarketForecastingAcademy.com and LinkedIn.

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Our Guests

George Grombacher


Roger Khoury

Episode Transcript

george grombacher 0:00
Come on let’s go. This is George G and A time is right. Welcome. Today’s guest strong and powerful. Roger, Cory. Roger, are you ready to do this?

Unknown Speaker 0:18
I’m ready. Let’s go.

george grombacher 0:19
Let’s go. Roger is the founder and CEO of market forecasting Academy, its leading trading education platform with over 1500 paying members. Roger, tell us a little about your personal life’s more about your work and why you do what you do.

Unknown Speaker 0:34
Ironically, I never actually set out to have a business or teach this, it was just when I had accomplished my goals. Back in 2010, people took note of the fact that I was always out and about socializing, volunteering time when everyone else was working. So people started asking it started with somebody to church, like, what do you do? How come you’re always here to help in the middle of the week with us old ladies here? Yeah, no, I would tell her and wow, you know, it’s not like gambling, though, is that risky. So well, no, I develop something. It’s very steady, very consistent, very stable, it’s actually more conservative than, than, you know, doing even real estate. I used to be in real estate and has a lot more control forms, like really, and so that that kind of started the conversation. And then all of a sudden, a few months later, her son graduated high school, and he, you know, had that little, little summer break before going to college. And she’s like, you know, I don’t want him blowing his summer on just partying and going out and messing messing with his, you know, messing around. So, would you be willing to measure him? You know, I, I know you love to teach, he taught Sunday school, you know, it’s just, would you? Would you be open to that I was like, you know, what, I’d love to, you know, and it started and what came out of that was mind blowing, that he was replicating what I did. And then other people started to ask, Would you be willing to teach me and it turned into something, I thought, like, this is great, you know, I’m having fun, I’ve never had more fun in my life. It’s been very fulfilling. And so it that snowballed into today, probably 90% of our clients are word of mouth referrals from existing clients. And those, I think there’s probably a typo there, it’s there was, at the time when this was written, I think when you got the profile, I mean, it was we had over 150 students not 1500. So I apologize for that. But it because I take very personal care with with each individual. So I’ll do an evaluation, make sure that it’s a they have a good circumstance situation that’s going to be conducive for them to be successful. And I’m very personally involved with my clients, I’m not set up to just take on the masses, because I think people really need the accountability. And since this kind of came fell into my lap, it wasn’t an intentional thing. I take a lot of joy in actually being involved. So that’s why it’s been kind of limited. But people are free to go through the information that we provide. And then if they want to be part of that they get to apply and have an evaluation, see how it goes. But that’s kind of what led me into teaching and developing market forecasts in the academy. It just started with people asking, Hey, could you did it teach me and it’s been a great run, it’s been an enjoyable thing.

george grombacher 2:58
Awesome. So you said you accomplished your goals, do those and attend what does that mean?

Unknown Speaker 3:05
So I didn’t want to have to grind and always be involved in where I had to always sit for the markets and be glued to the screen. So I built my account up to a level where it didn’t really require me to be engaged much at all. And then and then now I teach people, you know what I learned some things along the way. I say, hey, use this as a springboard because to do this, right? It’s kind of boring, because you’re sitting here, you’re learning a process of how to analyze the market, where the real time demand is, versus where prices and that people don’t realize often that price really is a lagging indicator to where the demand is, price is always following demand demand moves first price moves after. So when you figure that out, all of a sudden, you realize, Okay, I’ve got a process, well, that process enables you to start to, to be ahead and being a little more control. And the consistency of the outcomes allows you to compound pretty rapidly well, when that occurs. Now you’ve kind of utilized a part time effort to replicate a full time result. Now, I tell people, the next phase is keep going. And then take the abundance put into passive income, passive, passive income yielding investments, that replicates your need to even be in the markets. So then you don’t have to necessarily kind of the markets and, you know, apply, you know, trade all the time. And be you know, always focused on trying to cash flow the markets. So that way, you’re never come into the market with a need to trade, but you actually come in, because you want to because it’s an enhancement. And I actually, in my interview, I won’t take anyone on who’s desperate or who’s kind of in a situation is going to be putting pressure, they can’t come to to this needing to do it. They have to, you know, they have to be in a place where they can they want to do it. And so they have a primary income usually or somehow they’re taking care of their needs without needing to come to the market for that. That’s a much healthier approach. And unfortunately, a lot of people kind of don’t realize that about the markets it, it pulls the wrong emotions out of you. And if you’re pressured, it’s gonna be very hard to stay focused on what you need to do.

george grombacher 5:14
When when you read about and see the growth of platforms like Robin Hood, and those kinds of interested trading, what what kind of goes through your mind,

Unknown Speaker 5:26
I get this gut wrenching. You know, because people are driven by the excitement of those things, they hear somebody made a lot of money, what people don’t realize is, you need to be able to have a process that delivers a very consistent outcome, kind of like flying an airplane. It can be very scary to fly an airplane. But if you have the process down, you’ll learn how to fly the airplane, now you can build a very stable, very successful career out of taking off and landing an airplane, right. And so the process shouldn’t be something that’s hit or miss or where you’re relying on conditions. Like if you can only fly during summertime and nice conditions, that’s not very effective. You know, you need to be able to fly through all four seasons, you have to be able to know how to navigate whatever the weather throws at you, right, and then know when it’s time to be grounded and sit on the ground and not take off because of certain types of weather. But fortunately, those types of weathers scenarios are far and few in between, right. So that’s the kind of mindset people ideally shouldn’t be taking with the markets. But instead, they’re kind of following and chasing and really not in control. And I teach people how to be in control. And that’s where I kind of differ with, with a lot of people out there.

george grombacher 6:43
Yeah, what a great a great analogy, the the fly in an airplane analogy to being a successful trader. That makes sense. I, before I started the show, years ago, I was sort of just conditioned to thinking that passive investing is the way to go just buy an index and and very few people can beat the market. And then I had the opportunity to talk to folks who are maybe similar to you. And I recognize Wow, it is actually keep it as possible to beat the market and as possible to to be successful. Kinda like flat or playing in the NFL is, you know, it’s possible for me to do it, but I’m not going to put the work in. So I’m never going to play in the NFL. But there are people who can do it. That’s right.

Unknown Speaker 7:27
That’s right. And there are people who really have no, they don’t have the energy, the motivation. Kind of like me and moving I hate moving house, pay someone to move. I have no way I don’t care, you know, you do the work, you know? Yeah, there’s some people willing to do that. And I get, and you know, it’s unfortunate. Because in the markets, you really want to have the ability to control your outcome, because no one’s gonna care about your money more than you. Right. And I think it’s really, you know, I always get encouraged people look, if you have a financial advisor or money manager, that’s fine. But if you learn how to analyze the market, you can be empowered in such a way where you can know, because you know we do is we show people where real time demand is and demand, since it shifts before price, we now have the ability of consistently for years now full forecast in front of a live audience, when the markets going to crash within like one or two or three days, you know, like in a very timely manner. Before it does. You can’t fake or cheat that because you’re you’re in front of a live audience, right. And that’s really important people know that, oh, I can actually know when the markets actually primed and ripen to correct 20 30% Yes, you’ll see demand shift 20 30% below where prices you know, it’s not sustainable. You can take defensive action, you can call your money manager say, hey, take me to all cash. Right. And if you have a brokerage account, where you can short that, you know how to, you know that I’ve got clients that just shorted and just made quick money on the Coronavirus crash, right. But they pulled their retirement capital off into cash. They didn’t want to have to mess with that. And I think a lot of retirement capital is usually tied to like a long only scenario. So you can’t, you can either go into cash or you can be invested. So, you know, so even within limitations, you can protect yourself against the downside, then when the market bottoms and starts to recover, ride the upside, as actual gains instead of filling a financial hole that you’ve made for yourself, right, that’s much more effective and less stressful

george grombacher 9:28
and a lot less stressful. How was that? How has the demand price? Whatever the right term is the the lag. Is that sped up over time. Is it the same as it’s always been?

Unknown Speaker 9:43
Surpassing So what happens now? Yeah, it has kind of sped up. It’s got it’s gotten kind of more volatile. And so what’s happened over the years is you’ll find that the opportunities that you see so let’s say we have 100 opportunities, right if you had 100 opportunities 10 years ago For a good majority of them, you’d be able to take and enjoy success, right? Because there was a lot of there was a lot more order a lot more liquidity. Nowadays, you don’t have the same liquidity, the liquidity is very shallow. So it makes it very unreliable to be engaged. And so my analysis model actually highlights where there’s not a very good probability for follow through. So we can forecast the market. But along the way, what can happen, the kind of volatility is going to jolt your nerves. And so there’s a wisdom and a philosophy to how to how to apply the methodology. So it’s like, if we can forecast the storm is coming, we should have enough wisdom to know we probably shouldn’t be running errands in the middle of a storm, because that’s time for higher risk. We can hydroplane we can eat, there’s a high chance for accidents, you know, so let’s wait for the storm to pass on the market. Unfortunately, turns out nowadays, that stormy 90% of the time, so really 10% of the opportunities that you’re going to see are the ones that are worth engaging, because they’ll truly be can you can objectively analyze, that’s a truly low risk, high probability opportunity for profit. Whereas the other ones are gonna you can forecast, okay, I know it’s gonna go from point A to point B, but what’s going to happen along the way, that’s going to stress me out. But if I’m stressed, and I’m under pressure, this is why I don’t like to bring people on have pressure, watch what happens. Now you and I know how to drive a car. But do you notice that when you’re late to an important appointment, you drive that car a little bit differently, you’re a bit more aggressive, you rationalize behaviors, you wouldn’t normally rationalize when you’re on time or ahead of time, right? So now your chances for getting into a car accident having is a ticket. So that’s going to give you a sour experience, right? or god forbid, sometimes that life altering event either just increased dramatically. So when you come to the markets, if you have any kind of pressure, that’s obviously you know, I’m shutting us down walking away, I can’t do that. It doesn’t matter how objective and how accurate I am, I’m going to abuse my process, right, I’m going to be aggressive with it. And that’s going to give me a sour experience very likely. So there is a wisdom to that application as well. And if if we have a process, it’s going to deliver analysis, accuracy, and objective clarity. That’s the first step to being consistent, because that’s the number one issue that people have is they’re always feeling like we have to get something that works for a while and stops working. Why? Well, that’s because the markets evolved. And it’s changed. So if we can measure the change, now we’re outside of that we don’t have to be swayed and tossed by those changes, where we have to start and stop or constantly change the next new thing. Instead have a robust process that’s as consistent as gravity, like flying an airplane. Now, whatever the weather throws at us, whatever the market throws at us, we can navigate through that. We’ll know when it when it’s time to sit out, we know when it’s time to go in. But here’s the thing, when the markets are really turning in a bad scenario, we don’t start to lose more, we just engage less. And that’s a huge shift for most people. So we’re not constantly chasing right, we just kind of let things come to us. Does that make sense?

george grombacher 13:01
It does. It makes a lot of sense. I think once you have a good solid process, and then you marry wisdom to it that should hopefully result in better outcomes.

Unknown Speaker 13:13

george grombacher 13:14
So when you do have an opportunity, and you do decide to to engage, what kind of what kind of of results are you looking for? We’re obviously not trying to get 100% rate of return because we’re trying to get small amounts consistently. I’m guessing,

Unknown Speaker 13:29
correct? Yeah, you’re also we don’t look for homeruns. We, we really avoid the you know, I could have should have it, let’s suppose we have a real time demand analysis process. Look at the real time demand, because here’s what happens due to millions of interactions, or simply at least even hundreds of 1000s of interactions at any moment, right that are happening all around the world in the markets. That means demand is constantly being affected, and it’s fluctuating up and down. This is what’s causing prices to rise and fall. Okay, so we see these cycles of price moving up and down, moving up and down. Sometimes it’s trending sometimes it’s going sideways, sometimes it’s push, it’s trending downwards, doesn’t matter. We don’t care whether the markets bearish or bullish or sideways, because in each of those environments, we can see where demand is at. And in those environments, there are moments where there’s a very low risk, high probability opportunity for profit. And what I like to do is use a kind of a rubber band analogy, when you take a rubber band, you stretch it out, if it’s just stretched out a little bit, well, that’s an opportunity for it to snap back. That’s where most people get tripped up, they’ll see an opportunity it looks good on the surface looks like it’s gonna snap back to a certain area. And so they want to take advantage of that. But we don’t want those we want to know, we want to analyze when the market has stretched out so far, that rubber band is pretty much maxed out that the statistical probability for to move even further away from where the demand is, is unlikely. Right now you have a low risk, high probability opportunity for a profit because you’re arbitrage And for taking advantage of the difference between the significant imbalance with where price has gone away from demand that it needs to rush back to catch up to demand. Those I call demand imbalance arbitrage that’s, that’s a form of investing that I that I developed for my clients and really for myself initially, to help them understand, those are the pockets where you want to engage the market. And so that happens on a, you know, moment by moment. scenario, the market, so every day, throughout the day, and throughout the week, the markets cycling through these demand imbalances. And so every once in a while you have a very significant amounts, those are the ones that are like that ripened fruit that when you come to kind of pluck, it kind of just falls out of your hand, you’re not, you know, wrestling with the tree branch or just kind of pops right off. You want peaceful profits. Does that if that makes sense, right? You don’t want to be stressed. Because if you’re stressed along the way to getting your profits, that’s not sustainable, either, no matter how well your process works for you, right? You got it, you got to be stress free for the most part. And it’s not, it’s not uncommon for my clients tell me this is a form of relaxation for me. Now, all of a sudden, I’m not stressed, I’m enjoying this. And so to finish answering your question, typically in a if you spent a couple hours in the morning or in the evening, doesn’t matter when during the week, it let’s say for 10 hours a week looking at the market, you might be active half an hour or an hour out of that 10 hours CCC how you’re you really have to just kind of sit back and be willing to just say no, but look what happens. We never take more than a 2% risk. So it’s 2% or less of our entire account. So that’s a very low risk situation to begin with. We never hold a hold on a large drawdowns, we never take big risks, we don’t gamble on outcomes, we have to have at least an 80% or higher target rate for us, right. So we so our analysis is always producing that 80% or higher win rate. So we have to have that kind of analysis accuracy to engage the market. When we do, what we find is people can make a quick 234 percent, you know, and then they’re done. They’re usually there in the market. Because of that cycle. That’s there was a significant imbalance during the day. So it’s very efficient. So unlike now that might look on the surface like day trading it. So yes, we’re trading our money for an opportunity to make more. But we’re not really speculating like a day trader would, we’re not chasing and trying and hoping we actually know very objectively, this is out of balance that has to snap back and I’m going to be right, eight 910 989 times out of 10. Well, now what I’m doing is just getting these small little two percenters here and there. And that generates a very consistent return that compounds My Account pretty significantly. So at the end of the year, you know, you’ve outpaced inflation, you’d beat the market, you’ve been right 80% or higher time, that makes an impact. And that changes lives. And so that that’s really the process that we teach people who come to us. I love

george grombacher 18:03
it. Yeah, so many great metaphors. I want to sit in on one of your Sunday school classes. I love it. Roger, the people are ready for that difference making tip, even though you’ve given us a lot, what do you have for them.

Unknown Speaker 18:19
So it’s very logical for people to come to the market, and they want to make more money. So it’s the logical leap is I’m gonna look for opportunities to make money in the market. That would be no different than you saying, I got to get through that intersection, no matter what I got it, I’m in a rush. Okay. And so now what happens is your field of vision shifts. And now you’re so focused on the target of I want to make x a day, I want to make x a week or whatever I want, you know, whatever, the goal becomes some kind of outcome versus a process driven goal, right? He will focus on outcome driven goals, and that will blindside them more often than not. So I say, and this is this was a pivotal pivot point for me. And it was watching a bunch of surfers, by the way. And I realized there was two surfers out of 17 that were not taking very many waves, and I thought they were amateurs watching the group of 15. You know Cirque, but they were crashing and burning and taking every wave they could. But the two on the side, after about an hour and a half, I realized they didn’t take very many waves, they would take very few. But when they took away, they would have a great ride. I was like, Wait a second. Those are the pros. They have a way to filter out which ways we’re not likely to give them a bad ride. And instantly I realized that was my epiphany, my life changing moment. Instead of looking for opportunities to make money in the markets, we want to look for opportunities that are not likely to lose money. Now perspective will change everything for people.

george grombacher 19:51
Well, I think that that is great stuff that definitely gets come up. Another wonderful example, Roger, thanks that a metaphor or an analogy.

Unknown Speaker 19:59
My gosh, I think it’s probably opened up a boat. You know, he, I think he got you got to two for one deal. That’s

george grombacher 20:06
awesome. That is just just another really, really great way to look at it. And having the wisdom and experience to be able to see what is a good opportunity and fantastic. I love it. Well, Roger, thank you so much for coming on. Where can people learn more about you? How can they engage with you?

Unknown Speaker 20:23
Yeah, so I have a mini course primer on demand imbalance arbitrage it’s at market forecasting academy.com. You can go there, it’s complimentary. They get to learn all about it. It’s a little course they get plenty of examples and experiences and it shows how it works and what it looks like and all that stuff and get all the details there at the end if they like what they see they can submit an application and schedule a time to meet with me personally, I take very hands on approach. I take a lot of pride and pleasure in what we do. We’ve been doing this for 10 plus years now and it’s been just a joy ride. So I look forward to meeting those who want to come through.

george grombacher 20:57
Awesome. Well if you enjoyed as much as I did show Roger your appreciation and share today’s show with a friend who also appreciates good ideas go to market forecasting academy.com and check out that free mini course and take Roger up on his on his offer to to have a conversation. So thanks again

Unknown Speaker 21:15
Roger. Thanks for having me.

george grombacher 21:16
And until next time, keep fighting the good fight. It’s we’re all in this together.

Transcribed by https://otter.ai

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